Germany’s road freight sector - the largest logistics market in Europe - is showing signs of stabilization after a difficult period. However, the recovery is happening from a low base, and available transport capacity is becoming increasingly limited.
These findings come from the latest quarterly report by the European freight forwarding network ELVIS AG.
According to CEO Nikolas Grabowski, short-term economic indicators appear more stable than a year ago, but the overall economic foundation remains fragile.
Mixed signals from the German economy
In December 2025, industrial production in Germany fell by 6.5% compared with the previous month and remained 1.1% below the level of the previous year.
The biggest declines were recorded in mechanical engineering and the chemical industry, two sectors that traditionally generate significant freight volumes across Europe.
At the same time, the construction sector showed moderate growth, rising 3% month-to-month and 0.4% year-on-year.
Germany’s GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the same quarter of the previous year, indicating early signs of economic stabilization.
The IFO Business Climate Index also improved slightly, rising 2.7% year-on-year, while business expectations increased by 5.7%.
Transport capacity tightening again
Truck mileage in Germany dropped 14.4% in December compared with November, mainly due to seasonal factors. However, it remained 4.4% higher than the previous year.
Meanwhile, the Transport Barometer, which measures the balance between freight demand and available transport capacity, increased 5.4% month-to-month and 2.6% year-on-year - a sign that spare capacity is shrinking.
Profitability expectations in the road freight sector improved significantly, rising 9.4% compared with the previous month and 14.9% year-on-year, although price expectations slightly declined.
Fleet reductions now affect the market
During the economic slowdown, many carriers reduced fleet sizes and postponed investments.
As a result, the market is now stabilizing without a sufficient buffer of available trucks. If freight demand rises quickly - for example due to seasonal factors or increased industrial output - transport capacity could rapidly become a bottleneck.
As Grabowski noted, the key question for the industry is whether it will be able to expand capacity quickly enough if demand accelerates.
For businesses, this means planning shipments earlier and working with reliable logistics partners.
LOADSTAR UNITY LTD transports cargo across Europe via road, maritime and multimodal logistics solutions. Through a strong carrier network, the company helps businesses secure transport capacity even during periods of market pressure.
Sources: ELVIS AG, Lardi.Today, ifo Institute
These findings come from the latest quarterly report by the European freight forwarding network ELVIS AG.
According to CEO Nikolas Grabowski, short-term economic indicators appear more stable than a year ago, but the overall economic foundation remains fragile.
Mixed signals from the German economy
In December 2025, industrial production in Germany fell by 6.5% compared with the previous month and remained 1.1% below the level of the previous year.
The biggest declines were recorded in mechanical engineering and the chemical industry, two sectors that traditionally generate significant freight volumes across Europe.
At the same time, the construction sector showed moderate growth, rising 3% month-to-month and 0.4% year-on-year.
Germany’s GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the same quarter of the previous year, indicating early signs of economic stabilization.
The IFO Business Climate Index also improved slightly, rising 2.7% year-on-year, while business expectations increased by 5.7%.
Transport capacity tightening again
Truck mileage in Germany dropped 14.4% in December compared with November, mainly due to seasonal factors. However, it remained 4.4% higher than the previous year.
Meanwhile, the Transport Barometer, which measures the balance between freight demand and available transport capacity, increased 5.4% month-to-month and 2.6% year-on-year - a sign that spare capacity is shrinking.
Profitability expectations in the road freight sector improved significantly, rising 9.4% compared with the previous month and 14.9% year-on-year, although price expectations slightly declined.
Fleet reductions now affect the market
During the economic slowdown, many carriers reduced fleet sizes and postponed investments.
As a result, the market is now stabilizing without a sufficient buffer of available trucks. If freight demand rises quickly - for example due to seasonal factors or increased industrial output - transport capacity could rapidly become a bottleneck.
As Grabowski noted, the key question for the industry is whether it will be able to expand capacity quickly enough if demand accelerates.
For businesses, this means planning shipments earlier and working with reliable logistics partners.
LOADSTAR UNITY LTD transports cargo across Europe via road, maritime and multimodal logistics solutions. Through a strong carrier network, the company helps businesses secure transport capacity even during periods of market pressure.
Sources: ELVIS AG, Lardi.Today, ifo Institute
